I write about pricing strategy, applied economics, and the practical challenges
of translating quantitative analysis into business decisions. Posts draw
from my research and client advisory work across pricing optimization, marketplace economics, and experimentation.
The Revenue Maximization Trap: Why More Sales Can
Mean Less Profit
April 2026 | Pricing Strategy
A revenue-maximizing algorithm recommends
a 40% price decrease for an electronics category with elastic
demand, projecting an 82.7% revenue increase. At a 65% COGS
structure, that recommendation reduces profit by 144%. The
algorithm is technically correct on its own terms and
commercially destructive in practice. Here is why the
revenue-profit divergence happens and what to do about it.
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Cost Uncertainty Matters More Than Elasticity Precision
April 2026 | Pricing Strategy
Pricing teams spend months refining demand
models and elasticity estimates. The analysis that actually
determines whether recommendations are implemented correctly
is cost validation, which takes two to four weeks and is
almost always skipped. A five-point COGS error forfeits 70
to 75% of potential profit gains. A 20% elasticity error
preserves profitability across all scenarios. The implications
for how pricing teams allocate their analytical resources are
direct and counterintuitive.
Read More
What a 3% Repeat Purchase Rate Taught Me About
Marketplace Loyalty
Coming Soon | Marketplace Economics
In the Olist Brazilian e-commerce
marketplace, 97% of customers make exactly one purchase
and never return. The explanation is not poor customer
experience. It is a structural feature of the aggregator
model that makes platform-specific loyalty formation
impossible. Understanding why changes how you think about
retention strategy in marketplace businesses.
Coming Soon